News / Continuing war pushes airfreight rates toward Covid peak

Photo: DHL

Air cargo rates climbed 36% year on year in May as conflict in the Middle East continued to disrupt global supply chains, according to data provider WorldACD.

Presenting at TIACA’s Executive Summit in Warsaw today (2 June), WorldACD CEO Ken De Witt Hamer said the market had experienced a sharp shift since early March, when geopolitical tensions escalated across the Gulf region.

While air cargo demand has remained resilient, the disruption has pushed rates higher, as airlines reroute aircraft, redistribute capacity and force supply chains to adjust to changing network conditions.

WorldACD data shows worldwide rates were down 2% year on year in January before rising 5% in February. Following the outbreak of conflict, in March rates increased 12%, accelerating to 30% in April and 36% in May.

The company estimated that global air cargo revenues had increased 16% year to date, combining a 12% rise in rates with 4% growth in volumes.

And, despite the disruption, cargo volumes have proved remarkably resilient. WorldACD reported that inbound cargo volumes to the Gulf, which fell by around 60% immediately after the conflict escalated, had returned to year-earlier levels during May.

In May, the level had been the same as May 2025, Mr De Witt Hamer told delegates.

The effect on pricing has been particularly pronounced on certain tradelanes. WorldACD highlighted Amsterdam-Dubai, Hong Kong-Riyadh and Mumbai-London as examples of where rates have risen dramatically since the start of the year.

On some routes, rates have nearly doubled, while Amsterdam-Dubai recorded increases approaching 200%.

“To put that rate into perspective, the average rate in May this year was $3.23. The peak in our historic data back to 2008 was during Covid in December 2021, where the average global rates were at $4.43, so we are now around 30% below the peak we have seen in the past, and who knows what the rest of the year will bring,” said Mr De Witt Hamer.

He also warned that “volatility” was becoming as significant a challenge as rising prices.

Data presented in Warsaw showed that the spread between low and high market rates had widened substantially on several routes, making it increasingly difficult for airlines, forwarders, and shippers to assess prevailing market conditions.

Despite the market turbulence, WorldACD’s latest forecast points to continued growth for the sector. The company expects global air cargo demand to increase 2.3% this year, although it acknowledged that the continuing geopolitical uncertainty could alter the outlook.

“Whether we like it or not, our world, as we all know, has really changed in a few weeks and months,” Mr De Witt Hamer told delegates.

“So many different factors at play, the geopolitical situation is very demanding, of course, which, of course, has an impact on the whole air cargo industry.”